Nonetheless, we in the banking industry need to project and prepare for a range of scenerios in order to prepare ourselves in terms of what to expect in future.
- Minimum impact scenario: After the first major spike, world is able to manage the epidemic and as a result of huge government interventions global economy experiences V-shaped recovery
- Medium impact scenario: Pandemic stays around for six to nine months. Financial markets remain subdued and restrictions on the social distancing and business activities remain in force up until third quarter of this year
- Maximum impact scenario: Pandemic stays for a year to 18 months and the countries experience repeated spikes until vaccine is made available. Financial markets crash, interventions by governments and central banks remain ineffective to stop the downward spiral. Maximum restrictions on business activities remain in-force.
The webinar will also explore, in different scenarios in terms of how global Covid-19 pandemic will impact:
- Macroeconomic environment in terms of financial markets, response of the governments and central banks in terms of supporting the economy, business activity and liquidity in the markets.
- Business activity and bank profits, especially related to the impact on the bankruptcies and the ability of the customers to payback their loans and business development.
This webinar will also try to project that:
- How central bank actions in terms of massive reduction in the interest rates and undertake massive quantitive easing will impact bank profits? Also how temporary relaxation in accounting rules by central banks will affect banks ability to absorb the shocks they are experiencing, at least in the short term?
- How trajectories of the different regions will play out, especially in terms of the ability of various countries to control the pandemic and its resultant impact on the business activities and business of banks? The webinar will discuss possible scenarios in Asia, Europe, North America and Middle East.
- Economic impact of the pandemic
- Mid and Long-term impacts on the banking risks
- Scenarios of banks optimization and mass reduction
- How prepared banks are to address the crisis
- Oil price evolution and impact
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